一、讲座主题：Socioeconomic status, information acquisition and macroeconomic expectation

二、主讲人：尹鹏辉，龙门客栈资料库，研究方向为行为宏观和信息经济学。

三、主要内容：Forecasting future macroeconomic variables plays an important role in household's consumption and investment decisions. For example, in the life-cycle permanent income hypothese model and in the new Keynesian model, we have learned that a optimistic expectation about future income will increase current consumption and the same result happens if people expect the future inflation rate increases. However, what determines individual's forecasting precision? What are the roles of income inequality and education play in dtermining the forecasting behavior? Survey data from Michigan Survey of consumers (MSC) show that income and education affects forecasting errors regarding unemployment, interest rate and inflation directly and indirectly through attention allocation. Especially, the direct effect can be understood as the possibility to access more precise information through delegation, i.e. rich people can afford monetary cost to purchase information from professionals. In this paper we build a model of information delegation and information processing to explain these direct and indirect effects. We find that households with more income are more likely to purchase information from professionals and also to pay attention to macroeconomic variables.

四、时间：2021年12月30日12:00-13:30

五、地点：中心校区知新楼B321